BC Election: post-election analysis in Juan de Fuca (May 12, 2009)

Low voter turnout province-wide; status quo sustained

Incumbent re-elected: John Horgan, MLA returns to BC Legislature

by Mary P. Brooke:  return to pre-election interviews

 

As the voting results rolled in after the polls closed on May 12, 2009, at first it appeared that the NDP would make a good gain in seats in BC's 39th general election. However, as the evening's results were tallied, it appeared that BC voters chose to stay with the status quo -- same party, same level of majority.

"There are lots of people in BC who are having a very challenging time right now," said Premier Gordon Campbell, around 10:35 pm in his televised acceptance speech. "A big thank you to all of our candidates." The Liberals will now have 49 seats of the legislature's new 85 seats (there were previously 79 seats in the legislature before a reshuffling of riding boundaries), with 46.02% of the popular vote. The NDP has won 36 seats in the new legislature with 42.06% of the popular vote. This places the Liberals back in power for a third term with a clear majority; 43 seats are required for a majority win.

In the Juan de Fuca riding there was a vigorous race between incumbent John Horgan (NDP), Jody Twa (Liberal), and James Powell (Green). In the end, John Horgan returned to his seat in the legislature with 57% of the 19,277 votes cast in this westcoast Vancouver Island riding, with a large margin of win over Jody Twa and James Powell. The status quo theme was apparently therefore also maintained by voters in Juan de Fuca.

Horgan campaigned on the steady, diligent work that he had done in a detailed manner over the past four years as MLA for Juan de Fuca. His winning tally exceeded Jody Twa's Liberal count by 4,384 votes. Twa had campaigned heavily on the influence he said he would have with the province and the federal government to solicit needed funds for infrastructure in the Juan de Fuca riding area. Powell carried the torch for the Green Party and won 1,645 votes in his first round in public politics.

"The magnitude of the victory is humbling," said the re-elected John Horgan on the morning after the election. "Clearly the voters in Juan de Fuca were not persuaded by the 'Vote for me and I'll get you stuff' campaign and instead supported an approach that focused on a range of issues big and small, always mindful of the public interest. Countless volunteers and just ordinary folk made the election the most enjoyable I have every participated in. I look forward to the next four years working for all the people in this riding."

In terms of the overall popular vote, the turnout was considered low at 51% province-wide. According to CTV news reports, the Liberals and NDP received about the same percentage of popular vote as won in 2005 (Liberals 45.7% and NDP 42.2%). The Greens, with a candidate in every riding, won 8.2% of the popular vote but with that lost some ground (to independents and other parties) and won no seats.

In post-election speeches, NDP Leader Carole James urged BC citizens "to continue to speak out between elections because democracy is not something that happens once very four years". BC Green Leader Jane Sterk (elected in her riding of Esquimalt-Royal Roads) said that Liberal policies are "inconsistent with making life better for everyone in BC".

In her view, making up for the low voter turnout is that nearly 50% of of the MLAs now heading into the BC legislature are women, said former NDP leader Joy MacPhail (2001-2003), on a CTV broadcast May 12.

The referendum on Single Transferable Vote / STV (proposed change to the method of voting in BC) failed for the second time; a similar referendum on electoral reform had also failed in the 2005 election. Only 10 of 85 BC electoral districts (ridings) and 40% of voters supported STV in the May 12, 2009 referendum. The referendum required more than 60% support for the proposed system to be accepted.
 

  MM

 

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All three candidates will be contacted for post-election quotes in the days to come.